December 15, 2012
Jim Grant recent interview
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
December 11, 2012
Jim Grant on why the Fiscal Cliff is Another Y2K Moment
Transcript: But the fiscal cliff does not really worry my next guest. he describes it as the y2k of the moment. joining me now to explain is a well-known fed critic jim grant. he's founder and editor of grant's interest rate observer. you say this is like y2k. no big deal. came and went. you're not worried about it. you say the markets aren't goingto fret over it. i don't mean to be quite so dismissive. certainly my experience of problems that are most ventilated are the ones that are least menacing, in fact. the more you talk about something, the more it's likely to be discounted. we've done nothing but talk about the fiscal cliff. at the time all we did was talk about y2k. right. i'm thinking this is the not thing. so what we're not talking enough about is what the fed's stimulus policy has been. is this a bigger threat? is this a bigger worry for you? tell me what you're worriedabout. the fiscal cliff is the present value of these immenseunfunded liabilities. numbers of $80 trillion and up. the question is whether there will be good dollars to pay back those who have lent against those liabilities. it seems a stretch to think there will be.but there's many years to come yet. so we have a fiscal problem.it requires growth and requires good money. it does not require skies full of paper dollars, such as a the confetti we're seeing from the fed. it's unbelievable to me. the demographics of this thiscountry have changed so much. we're living longer. we're needing, you know, medicare longer. folks are even, you know, working longer. yet, these programs have not been changed in so many years, or ever. well, i think we might get around to doing this. but december 21st is not what it's going to happen. all the talk today and tomorrow will be about the fiscal cliff. that's not the thing. in the meantime, in the background, there's these very interesting assertions of what is and is not risky. the financial times had a piece observing that for the first time in 50 years british lifeinsurance companies or pension funds held more bonds thanstocks. it reminded me of the fact that fidelity is now managing more bonds than stocks. the world over there is a, if not a migration, then certainly a movement towards those assetscertified as safe. it seems to me given the backdrop of what our central banks are doing, the assets certified as safe are almostceriably unsafe. 145 years in operation, great franchise. so what is the risky asset? it seems to me that the world is set up for something that has nothing to do with the validation of this claim that bonds are safe. meanwhile, people are actually losing money by keeping their money in fixed income. you're not getting any return. today bernanke said at the economic club lunch that hedidn't want to suggest that the economy is going to be troubled until 2015 just because he's keeping rates at low levels until 2015. what are the implications of keeping rates at those levels until 2015?what we have done in this election is not only re-elected the president but re-elected bernanke-ism. he'll leave or not in 2015.there will be someone to succeed him that will be as liberal ordubbish as he is. our economists dream up this formula that describe the path they say of economic activity. they provide the confetti or the money to f the path of growth or nongrowth. it is the triumph of a seat of the pants central banking. this is what the country has signed up for with bernanke and his evident successor. that, to me, is a substantial problem on the horizon.next to this, the fiscal cliff. this is the reality we face. so what do you do an as investor? we have institutions watching.
Source: CNBC
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
November 09, 2012
James Grant Likes Gold & Metropolitan Life
• Tongue in cheek legal disclaimer is that “Congress shall make no law abridging the freedom of the press”
Jim Grant's First Idea: Metropolitan Life
• Metropolitan Life
o Japanese life insurers died out in long run.
o 825 billion of assets - a great franchise
o Long due to potential for dividend.
Jim Grant's Second Idea: Gold
• Gold: is a “legacy monetary asset”
• 1920 there was a depression (not Great Depression). 18 months after peak then industrial production jumped significantly
• "I'm a professional interest rate observer. There are none"
• Grant notes interest rates move in generational cycles
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
October 19, 2012
Jim Grant Discussing the 'Backward Shooting Gun' the Feds use and Black Walnut Tree treasury Replacements
A day before when talking about the expected implications that would arise from the Libor scandal, we mentioned that the Federal Reserve would be sued by proxy in the oncoming barrage of lawsuits and cases in the wake of the scandal. The Federal Funds rate basically sets the baseline for the Libor rate. The statement could not have been made at a better time as hours later, the most vocal critic against the Federal Reserve, Jim Grants appeared in front of worldwide national TV audiences and discussed exactly the same thing. The entire scenario was artistically summed up in a cartoon published in a Grant's Interest Rate Observer issue.
Presented below are some of the bullet points that Grant is famous for all over the world.
On the arsenal of the Feds
Jim believes that the Feds are not out of ammo but they are simply pointing the gun backwards and shooting at themselves.
On Libor and the Feds
The banks were responsible for fixing the Libor while the Feds fix the rates. The banks do this discreetly and with opportunity while the Feds do it as a profession.
On who deserves the real anger:
Jim believes that the anger should be focused on the central banks since the Feds are always talking about who might finance their bank. They also say that they manipulate the interest rates which is an absurd thought.
On the centrally planned reality show of the Feds:
Jim believes that this world is being governed under the rule of central banks and that they control each and everything that goes on.
On the perfect storm:
Jim is pessimistic about the coming perfect storm and the fiscal cliff and China, Europe and Greece but how is it a perfect storm if everyone seems to see it coming.
One remark that wont please any of our European readers here is that the trouble with Europe is not the shortage or Euros but the shortage of work hours – Europeans work about five hours a day.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Presented below are some of the bullet points that Grant is famous for all over the world.
On the arsenal of the Feds
Jim believes that the Feds are not out of ammo but they are simply pointing the gun backwards and shooting at themselves.
On Libor and the Feds
The banks were responsible for fixing the Libor while the Feds fix the rates. The banks do this discreetly and with opportunity while the Feds do it as a profession.
On who deserves the real anger:
Jim believes that the anger should be focused on the central banks since the Feds are always talking about who might finance their bank. They also say that they manipulate the interest rates which is an absurd thought.
On the centrally planned reality show of the Feds:
Jim believes that this world is being governed under the rule of central banks and that they control each and everything that goes on.
On the perfect storm:
Jim is pessimistic about the coming perfect storm and the fiscal cliff and China, Europe and Greece but how is it a perfect storm if everyone seems to see it coming.
One remark that wont please any of our European readers here is that the trouble with Europe is not the shortage or Euros but the shortage of work hours – Europeans work about five hours a day.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
October 03, 2012
Jim Grant Asks The "PhD Standard" To Allow Markets To Finally Clear
Jim Grant asks for a "return to capitalism", and the only way for that to happen is if markets are finally "allowed to clear".
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
September 23, 2012
Jim Grant featured in Ron Paul’s Hearing On “The Price Of Money: Consequences of the Federal Reserve’s Zero Interest Rate Policy”
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
September 21, 2012
Jim Grant on the recent FED movements
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
September 02, 2012
Jim Grant Refuses To Get Lost In A "Hall-Of-Mirrors" Market
Grant on what the Federal Reserve needs to do now to get new best practices:
“It needs to get out of the central planning business. The Fed was organized in1914 and opened its doors to conduct a more or less traditional central banking business, meaning it would lend against good collateral to solvent institutions in times of cyclical or seasonal need. It would defend and protect the gold dollar. That was all that its original remit contained. fast forward many decades, and we see the Fed in the business of steering, guiding, manipulating the economy, financial markets, the yield curve. It manipulates and pegs interest rates. It is all over the joint doing what failed in the old eastern bloc.”
On whether the U.S. needs a more rules-based central bank to provide discipline and protection:
“What we need is a central bank that has the humility not to do what it cannot do. And the Fed cannot do what others have failed to do, namely to plan an economy from a central desk in the capital city.”
On the Swiss national bank:
“The Swiss national bank is a little bit like the Fed in that it is undertaking unproven and truly radical methods. It is also a sign of the times that it has to go in and buy astonishing amounts of euros to suppress the appreciation. What we need is currency stability, and we need objective value in currencies. There’s no better way to establish objective value in money than to anchor it to something. “
On whether he would prescribe a gold standard:
“Absolutely…the unintended consequences of massive intervention, and this entails both 0% interest rates and the grotesque enlargement of the Fed’s balance sheet, mostly the risks that the Fed introduces are the risks of the suppression of the basic laws of supply and demand. The reason that the shelves of Wal-Mart are full rather than empty is that freely set prices balance supply and demand in this very complex thing called the economy. That’s what prices do. Prices are discovered in the marketplace…From 100 years before and after the institution of the classical gold standard the price level was the same. 100 years the same.”
On what Krugman gets wrong about presumed disinflation and deflation:
“We Americans spend most of the weekend looking the thing that economists call deflation, but what we call every day low prices. Falling prices are the sign of among other things, falling cost of production. They are, in short, a sign of progress.”
On whether the gold standard would lead to economic stability or instability:
“It is a force for growth and stability. It never can be confused with heaven on earth. Paul Krugman ought to consult a book by Charles Goodhart, one of the great eminences of big monetary affairs. He wrote a book about the New York money market in 1900 and 1913, 14 years before the institution of the Fed and Goodhart deemed that period to be the best period on record for New York City banking with regard to stability, solvency and profits, notwithstanding the panic of 1907…What is important is the rules in which these banks operated. The important rule was the owners of the bank were responsible for the solvency. Not the government, the owners. It was a capitalist enterprise.”
On when Bernanke should raise interest rates to get back to a normal economy:
“Last year.” [Eric Rosengren of the Boston Federal Reserve] will have a different line of work when I take over the Fed.”
On how distorted the stock market is from the central bank intervention:
“I think we live in a hall of mirrors in finance thanks to the zero interest rate regime and the chronic nonstop interventions. We do not know exactly where we are. We have to take a guess. It’s the only world we have. I see that many equities are cheap. They are all relatively cheap with respect to the bond market. Some are absolutely cheap. As it were by virtue of default, I am equity guy rather than a bond guy.”
On what he’d like to see accomplished at Jackson Hole:
“I would like to see the Fed admit it can’t do what it promises to do. That and that alone would do. Bernanke would get up and say, ‘ladies and gentlemen, we have erred. We have blundered into the central planning business when we ought to be in the central bank business. I am going to make things simple. We are going to make the dollar sound. We’re going to let the price mechanism work, and we're going to go home.’”
On Ackerson’s management practices at GM:
“They are improving. The thing for investors to know about GM is that it is an extraordinarily cheap equity. A great deal of upside. It’s very well financed out of bankruptcy. Chances of permanent capital impairment are probably very low. The chances of gain are pretty good.”
On whether he believes in manufacturing renaissance of America:
“That’s a pretty big phrase. I believe in GM at five times the estimate.”
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
“It needs to get out of the central planning business. The Fed was organized in1914 and opened its doors to conduct a more or less traditional central banking business, meaning it would lend against good collateral to solvent institutions in times of cyclical or seasonal need. It would defend and protect the gold dollar. That was all that its original remit contained. fast forward many decades, and we see the Fed in the business of steering, guiding, manipulating the economy, financial markets, the yield curve. It manipulates and pegs interest rates. It is all over the joint doing what failed in the old eastern bloc.”
On whether the U.S. needs a more rules-based central bank to provide discipline and protection:
“What we need is a central bank that has the humility not to do what it cannot do. And the Fed cannot do what others have failed to do, namely to plan an economy from a central desk in the capital city.”
On the Swiss national bank:
“The Swiss national bank is a little bit like the Fed in that it is undertaking unproven and truly radical methods. It is also a sign of the times that it has to go in and buy astonishing amounts of euros to suppress the appreciation. What we need is currency stability, and we need objective value in currencies. There’s no better way to establish objective value in money than to anchor it to something. “
On whether he would prescribe a gold standard:
“Absolutely…the unintended consequences of massive intervention, and this entails both 0% interest rates and the grotesque enlargement of the Fed’s balance sheet, mostly the risks that the Fed introduces are the risks of the suppression of the basic laws of supply and demand. The reason that the shelves of Wal-Mart are full rather than empty is that freely set prices balance supply and demand in this very complex thing called the economy. That’s what prices do. Prices are discovered in the marketplace…From 100 years before and after the institution of the classical gold standard the price level was the same. 100 years the same.”
On what Krugman gets wrong about presumed disinflation and deflation:
“We Americans spend most of the weekend looking the thing that economists call deflation, but what we call every day low prices. Falling prices are the sign of among other things, falling cost of production. They are, in short, a sign of progress.”
On whether the gold standard would lead to economic stability or instability:
“It is a force for growth and stability. It never can be confused with heaven on earth. Paul Krugman ought to consult a book by Charles Goodhart, one of the great eminences of big monetary affairs. He wrote a book about the New York money market in 1900 and 1913, 14 years before the institution of the Fed and Goodhart deemed that period to be the best period on record for New York City banking with regard to stability, solvency and profits, notwithstanding the panic of 1907…What is important is the rules in which these banks operated. The important rule was the owners of the bank were responsible for the solvency. Not the government, the owners. It was a capitalist enterprise.”
On when Bernanke should raise interest rates to get back to a normal economy:
“Last year.” [Eric Rosengren of the Boston Federal Reserve] will have a different line of work when I take over the Fed.”
On how distorted the stock market is from the central bank intervention:
“I think we live in a hall of mirrors in finance thanks to the zero interest rate regime and the chronic nonstop interventions. We do not know exactly where we are. We have to take a guess. It’s the only world we have. I see that many equities are cheap. They are all relatively cheap with respect to the bond market. Some are absolutely cheap. As it were by virtue of default, I am equity guy rather than a bond guy.”
On what he’d like to see accomplished at Jackson Hole:
“I would like to see the Fed admit it can’t do what it promises to do. That and that alone would do. Bernanke would get up and say, ‘ladies and gentlemen, we have erred. We have blundered into the central planning business when we ought to be in the central bank business. I am going to make things simple. We are going to make the dollar sound. We’re going to let the price mechanism work, and we're going to go home.’”
On Ackerson’s management practices at GM:
“They are improving. The thing for investors to know about GM is that it is an extraordinarily cheap equity. A great deal of upside. It’s very well financed out of bankruptcy. Chances of permanent capital impairment are probably very low. The chances of gain are pretty good.”
On whether he believes in manufacturing renaissance of America:
“That’s a pretty big phrase. I believe in GM at five times the estimate.”
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
June 19, 2012
Jim Grant: Ben continues with his grand manipulation scheme
No more QE and balance sheet contraction predicts Jim Grant. In preparation for what we are about to receive from the Charmain of the Fed, may we be truly grateful, Jim Grant offered CNBC's Maria B the forthright advice last night "prepare for platitudes but watch what they are doing not what they are saying". The ever outspoken Grant notes that the Fed's balance sheet has been contracting (unlike Maria's mainstream perspective); for the past three months the Fed's balance sheet has contracted at an annualized rate of 10% - even as Fed-head after Fed-head talk up QE and so on. So unless they continue buying securities - since the short-dated positions will continue to roll off - the Fed's balance sheet will continue to contract and therefore the stimulative effect will fall. Grant does expect QE3 since it is the fun-drug that we have been using for 4 or 5 years and that Bernanke will need little pushing to continue the Grand Manipulation. He ends on a rather interesting note that the Wisconsin win and the potential for an Obama loss in November may be more of a positive driver for stocks since markets begin to revert to a free market once again - we suspect this is not the case given the donors/beneficiaries under Romney's wing. But rest assured - the bespectacled bear ends on the chilling note that 'the long-term implications are bad' for the ongoing manipulation that is now the status quo.
Source: Zerohedge.com
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Source: Zerohedge.com
May 20, 2012
Jim Grant rebukes the Federal Reserve again
Jim Grant does his regular dose of rebuking to the FED on a CNBC interview. He talks about interest rates, fake asset prices and fake recovery. It is obvious that the FED is doing aiming at repression: "By changing interest rates, central banks change the perception of every asset class - so what seems cheap may not be cheap" as Jim Grant states that when people or businesses can fund an investment project at 0%, we are collectively being manipulated and moreover should try to realize - as an investing public - that we are Jim Carrey in The Truman Show. Of course the 75% of professional investors who believe Bernanke is doing a great job would prefer to stay inside the fake reality where their bonuses get paid and leveraged tranche losses get soaked up by some account transfer from the fed or loan loss provisioning adjustment - for the rest of us - wake up and smell the unreality. The money-honey pulls the blame and deflect card - noting the ECB are just as bad - but Grant brings her back to the reality that we are facing as he suggests being in the crowd who own Treasuries and Bunds when the next risk flare occurs will not end as well as many hope, preferring gold (and gold stocks) as a hedge as "The Gold move is not over". We have also published an interview of Jim Grant where he states the gold stocks are much cheaper than the metal and will provide good returns long-term.
His take on regulatory charges is interesting towards the end also - especially in light of this evening's news.
Feel free to watch the interview here:
Transcript:
expect gross profit to decrease. that stock getting hit hard. and back in march fed chief ben bernanke a peace of their mind. the fed has made the entire market and economy a, quote, hall of mirrors.here exclusively, the founder and editor jim grant. thank you for joining us. a hall of mirrors, what do you mean? a movie starred jim carey and a guy that didn't realize he was living on a tv set, a realityshow. everyone knew except for him, he drove his boat in the lake and the lake is like the painted sky. in a way, the trumman show isthe world of finance under the control of sent trcentral banks. it's about the manipulation of the things that we see. having repressed interest rates, the central banks change the perception of every investor towards assets. so what seems cheap may not be cheap.we don't know exactly because we can fund them at zero percentand that to me is an opportunity, it's a danger to what is.manipulation. it seems to be important that we realize we are collectively being manipulated. we ought not to be jim carey until the end of the movie and not while he's still in the dark. there was a poll out today that said 75% of professional investors worldwide now think chairman bernanke is doing a great job. well, they might because they are in the business of investing other people's money and funding it at the lowest possible cost. but what he's doing is creating this unreality. okay. so it's unreality and we know what he's doing and it's been going on for a long time now. a long time yeah. by the way, we have to say it's been going on at the ecb and other central banks as well, right? it's a worldwide dance craze. so let's look at the reality of it. this is what is happening. it doesn't seem that he's going to step away any time soon. how do you invest around that? what do i need to be doing to capitalize on this as an investor? what we can know is how people are handyiicappeding the future. i was reading today that we are in a bull market of fear and people are stuck in 2008. we have 2008 in the brain. it might recur. it's possible. more likely it's going to --something else is going to happen. i'm not interested in being in the crowd of people and very contrary to my express views have been buying treasury bonds and sovereign debt in germany and japan.this has been a hugely successful trade for 35 years. but, my goodness, that to me is my question. one of the worries, of course, we're talking about the fed action and that's inflation down the road.now, here we are in an environment where it feels like, be how can we have an inflation when we're worried about the economic growth story. right. but there are pockets of this economy, you see, and now certain companieses raise raising prices. bob iger on the show the other night, raising prices of oil and food. are you worried about inflation? yes. last great inflationary outbreak that we had was in the late '60s through the '70s. what preceded that outbreak was several years in a row from 1960 to '64. those were rates of inflation that today would be called deflation. the fed would mean to kwaush those rates and lift them up higher. we can't suffer 1% inflation, they would say. but what followed 4% of inflation was the great inflation of the late, late '60s, into the '70s and up until 1980.there's no press release. they don't tell you what is going to happen. so gold and silver have been awful investments for a year.until the last three years. right. but to me that is one area ofopportunity. some of these gold stocks are astounding. if you own them, they are mainly cheap but they are cheap as businesses as well as hedges. why is it that gold prices have moved higher and the gold stocks have not kept up? i don't know. that seems like anopportunity right there. here's my sophisticated analysis of this.they really hate gold stocks. yeah. but you're a gold bull. here we are with gold, 1594 is where gold closed tonight. do you think it's going higher from here? yes. i think that but i can't substantiate that with anything resembling a graham and dodd authorized analysis. i think it will move higher. to me the gold prices are a resip pra cal of the world's trust. i think gold will do better or the currencies -- another way of looking at the currencies will do worse. and we should point out that goldman sachs is forecasting a rally as well. it will advance to 1480. i'd like to know how they get to 40. anything beyond the decimal point -- that's very good. you're worried about regulation as well. talk to me real quick on that in terms of regulation and the policies out of the fed which is really a problem in business, you say. well, graham-dodd is a bureaucrat particular nightmare. those who take risk take bear risk and the excess may make the creditors of the regulated institutions in case they areimpaired or become insolvent. let individual responsibility berestored in the banking business and let us get out of sidewalksuperintending and micromanaging. i won't even ask you aboutdividend taxes. don't ask. jim, it's great to have you on the program. so appreciate it. love having you always. well, be we are taking you back to vegas, baby.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
His take on regulatory charges is interesting towards the end also - especially in light of this evening's news.
Feel free to watch the interview here:
Transcript:
expect gross profit to decrease. that stock getting hit hard. and back in march fed chief ben bernanke a peace of their mind. the fed has made the entire market and economy a, quote, hall of mirrors.here exclusively, the founder and editor jim grant. thank you for joining us. a hall of mirrors, what do you mean? a movie starred jim carey and a guy that didn't realize he was living on a tv set, a realityshow. everyone knew except for him, he drove his boat in the lake and the lake is like the painted sky. in a way, the trumman show isthe world of finance under the control of sent trcentral banks. it's about the manipulation of the things that we see. having repressed interest rates, the central banks change the perception of every investor towards assets. so what seems cheap may not be cheap.we don't know exactly because we can fund them at zero percentand that to me is an opportunity, it's a danger to what is.manipulation. it seems to be important that we realize we are collectively being manipulated. we ought not to be jim carey until the end of the movie and not while he's still in the dark. there was a poll out today that said 75% of professional investors worldwide now think chairman bernanke is doing a great job. well, they might because they are in the business of investing other people's money and funding it at the lowest possible cost. but what he's doing is creating this unreality. okay. so it's unreality and we know what he's doing and it's been going on for a long time now. a long time yeah. by the way, we have to say it's been going on at the ecb and other central banks as well, right? it's a worldwide dance craze. so let's look at the reality of it. this is what is happening. it doesn't seem that he's going to step away any time soon. how do you invest around that? what do i need to be doing to capitalize on this as an investor? what we can know is how people are handyiicappeding the future. i was reading today that we are in a bull market of fear and people are stuck in 2008. we have 2008 in the brain. it might recur. it's possible. more likely it's going to --something else is going to happen. i'm not interested in being in the crowd of people and very contrary to my express views have been buying treasury bonds and sovereign debt in germany and japan.this has been a hugely successful trade for 35 years. but, my goodness, that to me is my question. one of the worries, of course, we're talking about the fed action and that's inflation down the road.now, here we are in an environment where it feels like, be how can we have an inflation when we're worried about the economic growth story. right. but there are pockets of this economy, you see, and now certain companieses raise raising prices. bob iger on the show the other night, raising prices of oil and food. are you worried about inflation? yes. last great inflationary outbreak that we had was in the late '60s through the '70s. what preceded that outbreak was several years in a row from 1960 to '64. those were rates of inflation that today would be called deflation. the fed would mean to kwaush those rates and lift them up higher. we can't suffer 1% inflation, they would say. but what followed 4% of inflation was the great inflation of the late, late '60s, into the '70s and up until 1980.there's no press release. they don't tell you what is going to happen. so gold and silver have been awful investments for a year.until the last three years. right. but to me that is one area ofopportunity. some of these gold stocks are astounding. if you own them, they are mainly cheap but they are cheap as businesses as well as hedges. why is it that gold prices have moved higher and the gold stocks have not kept up? i don't know. that seems like anopportunity right there. here's my sophisticated analysis of this.they really hate gold stocks. yeah. but you're a gold bull. here we are with gold, 1594 is where gold closed tonight. do you think it's going higher from here? yes. i think that but i can't substantiate that with anything resembling a graham and dodd authorized analysis. i think it will move higher. to me the gold prices are a resip pra cal of the world's trust. i think gold will do better or the currencies -- another way of looking at the currencies will do worse. and we should point out that goldman sachs is forecasting a rally as well. it will advance to 1480. i'd like to know how they get to 40. anything beyond the decimal point -- that's very good. you're worried about regulation as well. talk to me real quick on that in terms of regulation and the policies out of the fed which is really a problem in business, you say. well, graham-dodd is a bureaucrat particular nightmare. those who take risk take bear risk and the excess may make the creditors of the regulated institutions in case they areimpaired or become insolvent. let individual responsibility berestored in the banking business and let us get out of sidewalksuperintending and micromanaging. i won't even ask you aboutdividend taxes. don't ask. jim, it's great to have you on the program. so appreciate it. love having you always. well, be we are taking you back to vegas, baby.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
May 03, 2012
Jim Grant's thoughts on the FED
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
March 30, 2012
Jim Grant: Gold is cheap but gold stocks are even cheaper. There are also USA housing opportunities.
Jim Grant, the publisher of the Grant’s Interest Rate Observer says that USA policymakers are the prolonging symptoms of the recession and that Fed should learn from the 1920-21 Depression.
FED got out of the central banking business, but now is in the central planning business. It manipulates all assets and advocates risky activities. FED’s QE will leads us to risky assets and of course the economy will improve in theory, but the theory says nothing about the true functions of the market which is to find value. This is in his opinion the main idea of capitalism. Prices tell us something about nature of value but when it is manipulated it is hard to do rational finds that are long-term stable.
When asked about downside risks he says:
All investors live and work in a kind of mirrors; all is distorted by Central Banks manipulations …. We can’t be dogmatic about deflation or inflation … We need assets with margin of safety …. Housing in most cities in USA is very cheap; we find value in residential and single family houses … that’s where we are looking at now.
When asked about China’s slowdown as he has also been sounding the alarm recently he states:
The credit and banking system is corrupt and corrupting values and prices in China. China will have hard landing but that is not the end of the world. Even though China’s growth will go down, it could mean little to USA. It only means much to the “China’s trade”.
When Jim Grant was asked about his view on Gold he said:
I like it. Gold has more upside due to CB activities. The gold mining shares are even more valuable than the metal.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
FED got out of the central banking business, but now is in the central planning business. It manipulates all assets and advocates risky activities. FED’s QE will leads us to risky assets and of course the economy will improve in theory, but the theory says nothing about the true functions of the market which is to find value. This is in his opinion the main idea of capitalism. Prices tell us something about nature of value but when it is manipulated it is hard to do rational finds that are long-term stable.
When asked about downside risks he says:
All investors live and work in a kind of mirrors; all is distorted by Central Banks manipulations …. We can’t be dogmatic about deflation or inflation … We need assets with margin of safety …. Housing in most cities in USA is very cheap; we find value in residential and single family houses … that’s where we are looking at now.
When asked about China’s slowdown as he has also been sounding the alarm recently he states:
The credit and banking system is corrupt and corrupting values and prices in China. China will have hard landing but that is not the end of the world. Even though China’s growth will go down, it could mean little to USA. It only means much to the “China’s trade”.
When Jim Grant was asked about his view on Gold he said:
I like it. Gold has more upside due to CB activities. The gold mining shares are even more valuable than the metal.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Jim Grant: Europe Debt Crisis Means More Money Printing
Jim Grant believes that the ECB is likely to print more money and purchase Italian government bonds.
He then talks about the federal reserve and also says to avoid farmland (in the US) as it is now overvalued in many places and he points out that the current farmland rental yields of around 2 to 2.5%, are the lowest in 40 years.
He is worried that the debt crisis may turn to a currency crisis at anytime. In his opinion all major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY and GBP) are racing to the bottom and it's difficult to see which one will get there first. He is surprised by the euro’s strength even though it is in the spotlight but he believes that it might soon start to weaken as ECB punish its value down by money printing and low interest rates.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
He then talks about the federal reserve and also says to avoid farmland (in the US) as it is now overvalued in many places and he points out that the current farmland rental yields of around 2 to 2.5%, are the lowest in 40 years.
He is worried that the debt crisis may turn to a currency crisis at anytime. In his opinion all major currencies (USD, EUR, JPY and GBP) are racing to the bottom and it's difficult to see which one will get there first. He is surprised by the euro’s strength even though it is in the spotlight but he believes that it might soon start to weaken as ECB punish its value down by money printing and low interest rates.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
March 07, 2012
Jim Grant: Capitalism Is An Alternative For What We Have Now
Jim Grant is awesome in this important interview with CNBC's Maria Bartiromo. Below are just some excerpts from it:
Maria Bartiromo: "What are the alternatives?"
Jim Grant: "Capitalism is an alternative for what we have now. I highly recommend it."
Maria: "We all do."
Grant: "No we don't."
Maria: "The Federal Reserve may not."
Grant: "We ought to be discussing an intelligent move to a sound currency by which I mean a currency that is based on a standard and not at the whim and the discretion of a bunch of mandarins sitting around Washington D.C."
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Maria Bartiromo: "What are the alternatives?"
Jim Grant: "Capitalism is an alternative for what we have now. I highly recommend it."
Maria: "We all do."
Grant: "No we don't."
Maria: "The Federal Reserve may not."
Grant: "We ought to be discussing an intelligent move to a sound currency by which I mean a currency that is based on a standard and not at the whim and the discretion of a bunch of mandarins sitting around Washington D.C."
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Jim Grant hates bonds and warns investors
As written in the Grant's Interest
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Rate Observer
, the U.S. has 3.3 times more Treasury debt outstanding than a decade ago, yet the yield demanded by the market has fallen by two-thirds, from 6.1% to 2%. The market won't always be so accommodating. Someday, when the market demands higher interest rates or, worse still, refuses to buy new debt at any price, USA situation will quickly get out of hand. Still the problem is different in the Eurozone. Because countries such as the U.S. and Japan are obligated to creditors in their own currencies, they would likely prefer the risk of inflation and possible devaluation of their currencies over the option to default. In the Eurozone, because countries issue debt in a common currency that none of them alone controls, there is no easy way out for one overleveraged country: the only choices are to undergo a restructuring (like Greece); a rescue by the European Central Bank (which, at various points, has been a buyer of sovereign debt issued by Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Italy, and Spain); or withdrawal from the Eurozone and reinstatement of their previous national currency.James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
February 22, 2012
Jim Grant expects bond yields to go up
Jim Grant has called for higher interest rates. Sooner or later bond yields will go up but he doesn't know when. It seems that Jim Grant's view is the same as of Jim Rogers who expects interest rates to start rising and the bond market bubble to collapse.
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
February 14, 2012
Jim Grant is Ron Paul's Pick to Head Fed, and would offer gold standard
Jim Grant is Ron Paul's Pick to Head Fed, Gingrich's Pick to Study Return to Gold Standard; Grant Waits for Call from Mitt Romney; One Fundamental Mistake by Grant
The legendary Wall Street writer, publisher of Grant’s Interest Rate Observer, has been mentioned by two of the rivals for the Republican presidential nomination. Newt Gingrich said if elected president, he’d name Grant to help run a commission looking at a possible return to the gold standard. And Ron Paul said, if elected president, he’d go all-in and name Grant — one of Wall Street’s best-known gold bugs — as the new chairman of the Federal Reserve.
He is best known these days — to Gingrich and Paul, among others — for his long-standing support for the gold standard. The world has moved in his direction. In 12 years, gold has risen from a derided relic trading at $250 an ounce to a hot investment at $1,750. Everywhere paper currency systems are under challenge. In 2008, the world discovered that you can’t just manufacture endless wealth out of thin air, as the gold bugs had long argued, and it is still struggling with the realization. Grant says paper currencies and our current monetary system are out of date.
When asked what he’d do if he actually were to be named chairman of the FED, he said: “I would then lay out a timeline for the conversion to a constitutional dollar, a dollar as envisaged by the Founding Fathers. “ A dollar, he says, is supposed to be a fixed measure, “like a foot, or a pound,” not something that can be redefined every
few weeks by the Fed.
few weeks by the Fed.
In his ideal world, says Grant, he would lay out a three-year program to convert back to the gold standard, probably at around $2,500 per ounce of gold. He adds that he would take great care to avoid the notorious blunder made by Winston Churchill and
the British back in 1925, when they went back on the gold standard at too high a
price, and imposed brutal deflation on the economy. Alas, he admits, this would
need an act of Congress.
the British back in 1925, when they went back on the gold standard at too high a
price, and imposed brutal deflation on the economy. Alas, he admits, this would
need an act of Congress.
For good measure, he’d also push for a repeal of a 1935 New Deal law that protected bank investors from runs on their financial institutions. Before the law, he notes, if a bank got into trouble, the investors were on the hook to bail it out: After all, it was their bank. The same was true of the partners in a Wall Street brokerage. The system of taxpayer bailouts, like that of paper money, is a modern innovation.
Source: MISH'S Global Economic Trend Analysis
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
James Grant originated the "Current Yield" column in Barron's before founding Grant's Interest Rate Observer in 1983. He is the author of five books, one of which is Mr. Market Miscalculates (Axios Press, 2008).
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)